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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.