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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest upset.

However the current competition is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and longtime strugglers rising in unison. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still